The World Bank has revised its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa in 2024 to 3%, down from the previous estimate of 3.4%. The primary factor behind this adjustment is the ongoing civil war in Sudan, which has severely impacted the country’s economy.
Despite the downgrade, the region is still expected to outpace last year’s growth of 2.4%, driven by increased consumer and business spending, according to the report titled “Africa’s Pulse.”
Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, noted that the recovery in the region is progressing slowly, although inflation is decreasing in many countries. This trend may enable governments to lower high interest rates.
The report cautions that growth remains vulnerable due to ongoing conflicts and natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Without the turmoil in Sudan, the region’s growth for the upcoming year could have been 0.5% higher.
In specific country forecasts, South Africa, the region’s most developed nation, is expected to grow by 1.1% this year and 1.6% by 2025. Nigeria’s economy is projected to expand by 3.3% this year, increasing to 3.6% in 2025, while Kenya is anticipated to grow by 5%.
Historically, sub-Saharan Africa experienced robust growth from 2000 to 2014, averaging 5.3% annually. However, this momentum slowed following a decline in commodity prices and the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many countries in the region face high debt levels, complicating their ability to invest in economic growth. Dabalen warned that if this situation persists, it could have severe consequences. He emphasized the need for increased investment to accelerate recovery and alleviate poverty.
Debt remains a significant challenge, particularly in countries like Kenya, which recently experienced violent protests over rising taxes. Governments have resorted to borrowing at higher interest rates rather than securing more affordable loans, leading to escalating debt repayments.
